Too Early or Wrong?

This is about the weather. I’ve paid attention to this fact of life for decades. I’ve watched the gloom, cold and ice and pondered the how, why and when. I even tracked weather data at our home for several years, you know, how many inches of rain fell on what date, the depth of snowfalls, temperatures, that sort of thing. I had a little book in which I recorded all of this. The family, of course, thought I was nuts. But then, that’s normal. They scoffed at my recording every gallon of gas I bought at what mileage and on what date. They thought that was nutty as well. That record helped me track oil changes and other repairs. Mechanics used that information to determine if I had a specific problem or not.

I must admit this recordkeeping became quite tedious. After 45 years, I dropped the auto data and severed my weather data collection from my life after only six or seven years.

At the time of my weather data, I was commuting four hours a day involving walking 5 miles per day roundtrip and an 85-minute train ride roundtrip. Dressing for the weather was a daily issue and I became quite good at it. I also improved my own weather forecasting.

Preparing for the 2025-26 winter season I forecasted a mild winter with a little more snow and cold than the previous year. Gazing out the window today suggests I was wrong. Cold temps, serious snow depths this early in the season suggests a hard winter. But is it too soon to make that conclusion? We had some deep cold snaps last year, too, and early. That winter proved to be even milder than the forecasters thought. Not me! I was certain the season would be mild, and it was. This year? I’m not so sure of my forecast.

At my age I no longer commute. In fact, if I want to shop or run an errand, I can remain in my recliner and ignore the bad weather. I don’t have to be anywhere other than a doctor’s appointment, and even then, I can reschedule due to weather. Afterall, I must protect myself from slipping and sliding. At least many would agree with that prevention. So, I easily change appointments to avoid unpleasant weather conditions. A nap is much better.

I’ll hold to my original forecast: an overall mild winter with moderate temperatures and snowfall near our usual annual total of 34 inches. Last year’s snowfall was about 17 inches. Let’s just wait and see if my forecast is accurate, say around April 1st?

December 12, 2025

 


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