State of the World

The journal Foreign Affairs, a bi-monthly publication, publishes academic papers and essays on issues large and small throughout the global community. That community, like so many others, is not all peaceful or in agreement. Each nation after all, must listen to its needs that support the well-being of its people. These needs are understandable, but the methods used to meet those needs often do damage to other people in other lands.

This means we are all in competition with one another for the basics of life.

Eons ago social order formed in each community unit – family, tribe, encampment, village – to keep a natural peace and gain the benefits of cooperation. Early societies – big and small – learned cooperation led to more gains than competition for power. Exercise of power often led to stark standoffs which led to violence as the final means to settle differences.

Eons ago we learned this. Yet today we still demonstrate the weakness of mankind for violence and raw power.

Talking our way through difficulties has been a long process and not always successful. Mighty wars in history are proof of that. The horrible cost of war – physical damage to property, death, disability, and financial ruin – have deterred war and led to diplomatic efforts. Most of the time diplomacy has worked. Failures abound, however, and inevitably lead to more war.

Some nations manipulate the process. They see what they want in the world that they do not now have in their grasp. They play their competitors as enemies, frustrate diplomatic process and build inevitably toward power plays to get what they want.

Putin and Russia want redemption. They want their consortium of nations restored to their power once had in the USSR. They felt powerful and influential in world affairs in those days of the past. They want that back. Thus Crimea, Ukraine and other targets for national union are in play. Putin wants to be part of NATO, once Russia’s greatest foil against hegemony. They could not beat NATO so wished to become one with them.

But they are excluded from NATO and the lines of friend and foe are redrawn. Defense against a powerful foe is not strengthened by including them. Putin turns to bullying regional nations to gain an edge in this game. So far, they have not budged. Putin rattles his tools of war to no avail. The stakes grow for war in this climate and Ukraine is the target of the day.

Will Russia invade Ukraine? If they do, how will NATO respond?  Does NATO retain enough cohesive leadership and purpose to wage a defensive war to offset Putin’s gamble?

We shall see, won’t we? But wait! The instability of recent years – the Trump years – have unglued many allegiances among foreign powers. China’s domain has expanded. China reaches to other continents for the goods and raw materials she needs to advance her intentions. Military strength is demonstrated continually to press home the urgency and resolve China has for adventures beyond her borders.

Russia and China continue to unsettle international accord to seek their respective advantage. Meanwhile, Africa, South America and the Middle East offer instability and riches to those who seek such.

The world community is not in agreement. They do not act as collaborators for the common good of peoples throughout the global community. There is no accord that cements their relationships.

That is the state of the world in 2022. How will this play out over the next five years? Will the global village cohere toward the common good of all its people? Or will regionalism and nationalism rule the day? Will cooler heads prevail? Or hot ones?

January 20, 2022

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