Inevitable

What is inevitable? What is it that will happen no matter what? What can we do to manage the inevitable? Will those preparations work? A little, or a lot? What are we doing here?

I try to put my mind in the place of a public authority dealing with COVID-19. What is the inevitability they deal with? How well have they done? What are effective steps to take when all the information is yet to be known about the pandemic?

Think about those entrusted in emergency management positions. Their jobs are to respond to emergencies as they happen. They can only do that with preparations. Identifying emergency routes of movement and transportation in case of a flood, or earthquake, tornado, ice storm, blizzard or ravaging fire of large scale. They work out the scenarios one by one. They know what they might expect in that one scenario, but what about a different one? Or one that combines two at the same time? Or, God forbid, 3 or 4 at the same time.

Thinking up scenarios so they can plan appropriate responses is the first step. Identifying the options they could employ as a response is the next step. Then, which option is best to utilize and under what circumstances? What if the circumstances were to change suddenly and project a more dynamic situation? What are the variables that would cause such circumstances, and what resources and methods are available for an optimum response?

Questions. Always questions. Each with an answer that does not fit another scenario.

Now, with that background as prelude, overlay the emergency of choice on such plans. Take the COVID-19 Pandemic. What would be the proper steps to follow in response to the pandemic? Well, of course, research the cause, set that in motion immediately using the best medical and academic brains to determine the cause, spread and variables likely to be encountered. At the same time, assemble medical teams to respond to the patients. Set up a triage process that determines the severity of symptoms for each patient and assign medical care teams to the most urgent cases and on down the line of those presenting symptoms.

Next, assemble a medical team to measure results of treatments. Which work best with what set of symptoms and outset severity? What variables were encountered to be prepared for in the next set of patients? What steps can be used to quickly assess and treat the next batch of patients using the newest information we have available?

When patient care efforts are well underway and under as much control as possible, turn attention to prevention of the disease. That comes in two packages: preventing the spread of infection and reducing the severity of symptoms once acquired by a new patient. Identify the best methods to pursue even though much more information and research is needed.

Prescribe solutions to the public as they become available. Continue to test results of those solutions to learn if adjustments are needed at any step or method. Once learned, share that with the public.

To prevent massive public infection, set in motion procedures and mandates that will improve hoped for results of disease prevention, reduction of spread, and reduced severity of symptoms. Those mandates in a ‘free society’ are not easy to proclaim or to adopt. If resistance is encountered with the mandates, provide public education and logic to persuade compliance.

What if noncompliance is large enough to frustrate achievement of disease management as currently understood? Consider separation strategies to enforce that which is known to be effective. If vaccines prove effective and are provided free of cost, separate the nonvaccinated public from those vaccinated. Arrest, custody and fines should be considered when appropriate. Sequestration should be considered for those most incorrigible. In an institutional setting, they will be supported with necessary implements and supplies (food, clothing, cleaning supplies, etc.) to perform daily activities that serve their own needs while the emergency remains in effect. That means they cook and clean for themselves, including laundry and all other necessary household duties. If sickened, they are attended only by those medical personnel not needed for the larger medical emergency for the population that is following protocols and mandates.

This program outlines what a society may need to implement to save the most lives and contain a deadly and disabling disease from infecting the entire population. It may seem harsh, but fully attending the disease is necessary if the inevitable death of everyone else is a likely outcome.

Unvaccinated citizens need to understand the danger they pose to everyone else. It is preventable. It has nothing to do with individual freedom if the life of others hang in the balance.

December 22, 2021

 

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